As any student of the economy business knows economic directions are plagued or aided by underlying checks to changes in the business climate. Underlying causes are usually reactions to political taxation and government policies as well as overall consumer spending levels based on leftover budget items being met. These business economic conditions are working:

 Checking Recent Bullish Factors

• Low Inflation
• Low Interest Rates
• Strong Employment
• Rising Corporate Profits
• Strong Corporate Balance Sheets
• Worldwide Liquidity

Recent Bearish Factors

• Slumping Housing Market
• High State Sales Taxes
• High Property Taxes
• Rising Inflationary Pressures
• Weakening Dollar
• High Debt Levels
• Falling Home Prices
• Rising Energy Prices
• Rising Food Prices

In our prognostication, after a long stock market bull run up, the business future seems headed into a bearish region. Perhaps not immediately, but signals revealing stronger indications of possible future woes are in the mix.

Same store sales check in the declining column perhaps due to increases in energy and food costs. Housing is sluggish and the slump is not going away soon according to experts. Tighter lending practices are making it harder for borrowers to sell their homes and benefit from refinance mortgages. Numerous related industries depend on moderate or best case, strong housing demand. Large increases in local property taxes, state sales taxes and increases in energy costs additionally hurt the consumer.

Run away spending, soaring entitlements by local and state governments are hurting the homeowner as well as businesses. Most families need two incomes to float their ship. The quality of affordable life for many in the middle and lower economic class is slipping away.

The increase in agricultural prices has caused a rise in supermarket food prices. Poor decisions by government inaction protectionist policies for domestically produced ethanol have produced stealth inflation. Bowing to special interest groups instead of allowing free competition to supply the needs of any current or future demand by our neighbors to the South, big business has earmarked domestic corn and feed for producing ethanol when instead they could have bought it on the cheap from South America. Cattle feed, chicken feed, and all agricultural product prices are rising because the domestic ethanol lobby hijacked the political system.

A business check into the bull equity market seems unshaken and will probably hold strong into the near future. Long range clouds of 76 million baby boomers getting ready for retirement and massive tax increases to keep the government from insolvency are in store.

The landscape is changing. Decreased consumer spending will rear its sorrowful head eventually when the chickens come home to roost.

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